A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning shows Democrat Ralph Northam with a 9-point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie. Northam’s largest projected lead among the most recent polls for tomorrow’s election. Today’s results do show a tighter race than Quinnipiac’s late October survey. The tightest projections for the governor’s race came late last week from a Roanoke College. That poll — which can be found here — showed Northam and Gillespie tied at 47% each.
Full news release on the latest Quinnipiac University poll
From Quinnipiac University: With yawning gender and racial gaps, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 51 – 42 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Cliff Hyra has 3 percent. Today’s result compares to a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 71 – 20 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. White voters back the Republican 50 – 44 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 61– 33 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men back Gillespie 52 – 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Northam, 42 percent for Gillespie and 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 96 – 3 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 – 5 percent, with less than 2 percent for Hyra.
“Republican Ed Gillespie is closing Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s lead, but Gillespie still has a ways to go and only 24 hours to get there,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “A good sign for Gillespie is that in the last two weeks he has cut Lt Gov. Northam’s 14-point lead among independents, the key bloc of voters, to a statistical tie. But any hopes that the Republicans have for victory will require their candidate to accomplish the Herculean task of making up a deep, 28-point deficit among women. From October 30 – November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,056 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
Click here to read more on the Quinnipiac University poll